Nani

Bitcoin prediction markets are liquid markets only during daytimes across the three main timezones in America. This implies the odds on the contracts are mostly efficient. If either ‘up’ or ‘down’ contract has 90% probability between the 10-12th minute mark, it is likely to go to 100%. My bot executed the ‘picking pennies in front of a steamroller’ strategy to buy this contract and wait for completion.

I iterated various strategies like different minute marks, probability percentages, times of day but the above numbers gave me the most success over multiple days of experimenting with the bot. During low liquidity times at night, the price was too volatile for my strategy to work, so I kept it running only during the daytime. ☀️

If these markets are truly efficient then me trading on 90% probabilities means I lose 1 trade every 10 trades wiping out all the gains I made in 9 trades. The only reason I made pennies is because of stop loss 🛑. After I purchase between the 10-12th minute mark, I would check the price and if the price ever drops below 50c, I would sell the contract at the price available. This was the only reason my strategy ever made money.

Kalshi charges fees for ‘market taker’, so I structured trades to always work as a ‘maker’. Running the final successful strategy over seven days made me 50c on a $10 investment or a 5% return. This equates to a 260% APR!! 🚀

Bitcoin is too volatile and I made several assumptions in this project that I was not confident to go all in. I also believe prediction markets are gambling equivalent ⚠️ and I didn’t want to get pulled into it.

Both of my parents unknowingly had a fixed mindset, they believed our fate was pre-determined and few things could change it. Hard work was required but only to meet the potential we already possess. Existing talent and luck played a role in the outcome. I still believe luck plays a huge role, however Dr. Dweck’s book completely changed my perspective. Her book showed me that even potential is not fixed and it can be increased. I no longer ask ‘Can I do it?’, I ask ‘How can I do it?’. A growth mindset 🌱 is a way of thinking that simply gives your brain the permission to entertain the possibility of success that otherwise would not even be considered. As someone who grew up with a fixed mindset, I have to put in extra effort to overcome myself in all tasks.

Labelling 🏷️ was another concept that Dr. Dweck asked us to eliminate. It was like a psychological limiter that prevented us from going forward. Simply labelling ‘I am bad at Math’ or ‘this tool never works correctly’ blocks our mind from even considering an alternative possibility. I have since prohibited everyone in my family from labelling my toddler. Don’t label her as ‘good at sports’ or ‘bad at speaking’ or as a ‘helper’ etc. My toddler can be all of those things or none of those things, labelling will only serve to limit the potential.

The last concept I learnt was to appreciate effort and not only the result 💪. She mentioned it in the context of kids. If kids get something naturally and don't put in a lot of effort, heavy praise can backfire. It makes them think things are supposed to be easy — and that having to try means you're not good at it and should give up. Praising the effort rather than just the outcome teaches a different lesson: mastery requires persistent dedication. Even the most naturally gifted need to understand that hard work is what leads to true greatness. I believe this works on adults as well, and it needs continuous reinforcement.

Overall I highly recommend the book 📖. I believe having a growth mindset is a better way to live life to its fullest potential.

I came across this book called ‘The Accounting Game’ that was recommended by my co-workers. It explained accounting concepts from the perspective of managing a kid’s lemonade stand 🍋. It had exercises to fill out like the balance sheet, income statement and the cashflow statement 📊. It was a great introduction to accounting and I greatly enjoyed working through it. I recommend it to anyone who wants to understand the basics.

I was doing random things in the stock market 📈. Buying and selling stock on news and vibes. I didn’t have a process or strategy. Then I saw a random video on Youtube about Warren Buffett and his success as an investor. I was immediately drawn to it and read as much as I could about him and his letters. Followed other investors who walked the same path with their own flavors. This helped me immensely in my own decision making regarding investments. I still have a lot to learn and Warren’s way is the direction I want to follow.

With a toddler 👶 there is very little time to be on top of the latest developments in the anime or TV world. We also want to raise her without screen time for as long as we can. This meant I had to cut back completely on watching TV shows and anime. It also posed a question, was all the time I spent watching useful or wasteful?

Japanese crafts are known for quality, the attention to detail and the process of the work, not just the result. This shows in all of the great anime, you can see and feel the effort that went into making them ✨. I appreciate this aspect immensely. A few of the animes have good lessons that you should take to heart. I believe they add a lot of value.

To answer my question on whether it was a good use of time, you have to consider the alternative. If the alternative was doomscrolling or being intoxicated, anime was definitely a good use of time but if I read books instead then that would have probably been better. In hindsight, I wish to have spent more time reading books 📚. However, from an entertainment perspective I believe anime is much better than the alternatives that hijack your neurotransmitters.